In 2023, CEA (the Indian Central Electricity Authority) delivered a plan to add flexibility to coal-fired power plants and so leave some room for renewables in the electricity mix. The Plan forced power producers that every plant must comply with 2 conditions:
1. Increase their capability to ramp up or down much faster (up to 3% of their capacity per minute), in order to adapt to intermittent renewables quickly.
2. Reduce their Minimum Technical Load (up to 45% of their nameplate capacity), in order to supply as much renewables (solar, particularly) as possible during daylight.
Additionally, three conditions limited the possibilities:
1. the utilities shall modify the units strictly within the duration stipulated under various phases in the Phasing Plan.
2. The utilities shall avail the maximum shutdown period of one month as mentioned against each unit in the Phasing Plan.
3. As far as possible, the utilities shall match the shutdown period of upgradation/retrofits works for flexible operation with Annual Over Haul (AOH) period.
After the pilot project with only 10 units, we are now in the middle of the Phase I, when 91 units collecting +51 GWs of capacity should adapt. But the modifications are not progressing as expected. Hardware retrofits may take time, the shut down period may be longer than the requested month, and losing the AOH window could postpone the adaptation to the next year.
Phase II will start in June 2026 with 100 plants collecting 47 GWs. Between June 2028 and December 2030, Phases III and IV will guide 300 units collecting 93 GWs to adapt.
Even in the ideal case that the plan would be delivered as planned, it could be too late and not flexible enough.
And according to Reuters, India’s Coal Power Output dropped 9,5% in May at the fastest pace in five years.
And according to Reuters, India’s Coal Power Output dropped 9,5% in May at the fastest pace in five years.
- India’s coal-fired electricity generation in May fell at the fastest pace in five years, as overall power demand declined for the first time since August and renewable energy generation rose to a record high.
- Increased generation from hydro and nuclear also led to a decline in natural gas-fired power output.
- Demand – typically strong during peak season – remained limited due to milder temperatures.
- Meanwhile, renewable energy output surged to a record high, with its share in the overall power mix rising to 15.4% – the highest since records began in 2018.
So we have more renewables in the mix, less dispatchable thermal power (both coal and gas power), a context where coal-fired power plants are struggling to adapt, and (by design) coal-fired power plants are not flexible enough, and you have all the ingredients to replicate the Spanish blackout at a huge scale.
India needs to accelerate adaptation to CEA rules as soon as possible. Hardware retrofits may not be the solution for everybody due to economic cost, time to deliver, and efficiency of the results. So, power plant owners should think about digital solutions able to deliver expected results, on time, with no shutdown period.